MLS playoff clinchers and eliminators (Edition 3)

With just 3 weeks (hence, Edition 3 title), three teams have now clinched playoffs (Columbus, Houston, New England). However, not teams are out of the playoffs, and there is still a good chance that all teams will be live after this next weekend as well. Even though there are still over 31 billion scenarios to play out the season (3^22), I have determined many of each teams' scenarios to clinch or be mathematically-eliminated from the MLS playoffs for the next week of games.

Columbus Crew - 53 Points (East 1st):

East 1st seed clinched.

To clinch Supporter's Shield:

• Win - All teams would be too far out in points.
• Draw - and Houston draw or loss
• Lose - and Houston loss

Houston Dynamo - 43 Points (West 1st):

Playoffs clinched/3rd seed clinched. (Real Salt Lake play Colorado and FC Dallas, causing these teams to tie Houston at best in points at the end of the year (or just RSL to pass them), but Houston owns the tiebreakers with these teams.)

To clinch 1st seed:

• Win - Chivas Loss (Chivas Draw would make it so Chivas could only tie with Houston. However, if Chivas did get all remaining points (after a draw) the head-to-head would be tied, then goal differential would see Chivas having to overcome at least a 11 goal differential (Houston would be at least at +10, and Chivas would be -1). Leaving the probability nearly at nil, but still a chance).

To clinch at least 2nd seed:

• Win
• Draw - RSL could tie them with points at the end of year, but Houston owns the tiebreaker.
• Loss - RSL draw or loss AND FCD draw or loss (FCD would own the GD tiebreaker if HOU lost out and FCD won out.)

New England Revolution - 43 Points (East 2nd):

Playoffs clinched/Clinched at least a wild card spot (Once again the games between other teams make it impossible to have enough teams pass them... RSL vs NY, RSL vs FCD, RSL vs COL. However, they could fall back to 4th in East, but they would be ensured a wild card at that point.)

Cannot clinch 2nd seed this week.

To clinch at least 3rd seed:

• Win
• Draw or Loss - NY draw or loss (If NE draw and NY win, they would have to make up at most a 5 goal differential with NE (NE +1, NY at worst -4)

Chicago Fire - 42 Points (East 3rd):

To clinch at least 3rd seed:

• Win
• Draw or Loss - NY draw or loss (On CHI loss and NY draw, NY would only be able to tie CHI in points at year-end. CHI owns the tiebreaker.)

To clinch Playoffs:

• Win or Draw
• Loss - NY draw or loss OR DC draw or loss OR KC draw or loss OR COL draw or loss OR FCD draw or loss (SJ could tie by winning out, but that would involve giving KC a loss keeping them away from CHI, and CHI owns the tiebreaker over SJ. Thus, earning CHI a wild-card spot.)

Chivas USA - 39 Points (West 2nd):

To clinch at least 2nd seed:

• Win - SJ would get a loss. Then, RSL draw or loss (On CHV win and RSL draw, RSL would only be able to tie CHV in points at year-end, CHV owns the tiebreaker.) AND COL draw or loss AND FCD draw or loss

To clinch at least 3rd seed:

• Win - SJ would get a loss. Then, COL draw or loss OR FCD draw or loss.
• (Draw AND COL loss AND FCD loss would barely keep them out of clinching at least 3rd. COL ahead of CHV and FCD in head-to-head, and FCD could jump ahead of CHV on goal differential.)

To clinch Playoff:

• Win - SJ would get a loss. Then, COL draw or loss OR FCD draw or loss OR KC draw or loss OR NY loss
• Draw - SJ would get a draw. Then, KC loss AND DC draw or loss

New York Red Bulls - 35 Points (East 4th),
Real Salt Lake - 35 Points (West 3rd),
Colorado Rapids - 34 Points (West 4th),
FC Dallas - 34 Points (West 5th),
Kansas City Wizards - 33 Points (East 5th),
DC United - 33 Points (East 6th),
Toronto FC - 31 Points (East 7th),
San Jose Earthquakes - 30 Points (West 6th):

None of these can clinch a playoff spot or be mathematically eliminated.

Los Angeles Galaxy - 29 Points (West 7th):

To get mathematically eliminated.

• Loss - COL would get a win. (They could end tied for a wild card spot. However, since they would have to be tied with NY (and a possible myriad of other options), they would always be behind in the tiebreakers.)

Be sure to check back every week, as I will be putting up the scenarios throughout the rest of the season. Also, feel free to leave comments about your thoughts.